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Sunday, February 15, 2026

Jefferies Sold Bitcoin Over Quantum Fears

Last month, Jefferies global equity strategist Christopher Wood made a surprising call: he exited Bitcoin entirely from his model portfolio.

The decision wasn’t driven by volatility, regulation, or macro trends. Bitcoin had returned more than 300% since his 2020 allocation—far outperforming gold. Instead, Wood cited a risk most investors rarely consider: quantum computing.

From a pension-fund perspective, he argued, Bitcoin’s long-term “store of value” thesis becomes less certain if future computers could break its cryptography.

That move triggered debate across institutional crypto—and within weeks, Bitcoin developers responded with a technical proposal aimed squarely at the concern.


Why Quantum Computing Scares Institutions

Bitcoin security relies on elliptic curve cryptography, specifically ECDSA signatures. The system works because deriving a private key from a public key is effectively impossible with classical computers.

Quantum computers running Shor’s algorithm could, in theory, reverse that math.

Not today. Possibly not for a decade or more. But institutions think in multi-decade horizons.

Research cited in institutional reports suggests that 20–50% of existing Bitcoin could eventually be exposed if sufficiently powerful quantum machines emerge. The vulnerability comes from address reuse and certain transaction types that reveal public keys on-chain.

Some of the most exposed coins include early addresses—potentially even those associated with Satoshi Nakamoto—as well as newer formats tied to scalability features.

For a hedge fund, that uncertainty may be tolerable. For a pension portfolio meant to last 30 years, it’s harder to justify.


The Market Split: Dismissal vs Concern

The institutional reaction has been divided.

Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, downplayed the risk, arguing Bitcoin will upgrade before quantum computers become dangerous.

Meanwhile, companies like Coinbase have acknowledged quantum computing as a real long-term threat worth preparing for. The Ethereum Foundation has even created a dedicated post-quantum research initiative.

That context makes the timing of Bitcoin’s new proposal significant.


Bitcoin’s Technical Response: BIP-360

In February 2026, developers merged BIP-360 into the Bitcoin Improvement Proposal repository.

The proposal introduces a new address structure—often called Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR)—designed to reduce quantum exposure without disrupting existing functionality.

The key idea is simple but powerful:

  • Remove the public-key exposure that creates quantum attack vectors.

  • Preserve compatibility with existing wallets and smart-contract features.

  • Enable activation through a soft fork rather than a disruptive network split.

If adopted, quantum-resistant address options could arrive within roughly 12–18 months.

That timeline matters because governments are already planning cryptographic transitions. U.S. national security guidance aims for quantum-safe systems by 2030, and federal standards bodies plan to phase out current elliptic-curve cryptography after 2035.

Bitcoin developers appear determined to move faster.


Who Built It

The proposal is led by Hunter Beast, a protocol engineer at Marathon Digital Holdings, alongside cryptography researcher Ethan Heilman and communications strategist Isabel Foxen Duke.

Their approach reflects Bitcoin’s conservative philosophy: minimal changes, maximum security, and gradual evolution.

Importantly, BIP-360 is intended as a bridge—not the final destination. Future upgrades could incorporate full post-quantum signature systems already being standardized, once they become practical for blockchain use.


What It Means for Investors

For everyday holders, the immediate impact is minimal. The quantum threat remains theoretical for now, and any upgrade would likely be optional at first.

For institutions, however, the signal matters more than the specifics.

BIP-360 demonstrates that Bitcoin’s ecosystem is proactively addressing long-term risks rather than ignoring them. That alone may influence how asset managers evaluate exposure over decades.

Whether it convinces Christopher Wood to re-enter Bitcoin is uncertain. But it changes the narrative—from “Bitcoin might be broken by quantum computing” to “Bitcoin is preparing for the quantum era.”


The Bigger Question: Can Bitcoin Adapt Fast Enough?

No one knows when quantum computers will become powerful enough to threaten cryptography. Estimates range from years to decades, with enormous uncertainty.

What is known is the scale of potential exposure: millions of coins worth hundreds of billions of dollars.

That reality creates two competing bets:

  • Skeptics bet quantum advances will outpace Bitcoin’s upgrades.

  • Supporters bet Bitcoin’s open-source community will evolve in time.

BIP-360 doesn’t settle that debate. But it shifts it.

The question is no longer whether Bitcoin can adapt.

It’s how quickly.

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